Стоит ли верить приметам?
В научной обсерватории МГУ на протяжении 40 лет производят точные замеры климатических условий. Что получится, если сопоставить научные наблюдения и природные?
Если в январе частые снегопады и метели, то в июле будут такие же частые дожди. Много длинных сосулек – к хорошему урожаю. Всегда есть наблюдательные люди, которые видят причинно-следственную связь между различными природными явлениями. При повторении некоторой закономерности начинали верить в примету. Но стоит ли безоглядно доверять народным приметам или же это просто случайные совпадения?
Из всех народных традиций, обычаев и поверий самыми долгоиграющими являются приметы о погоде. Эти предсказания родились задолго до научных наблюдений. Но до сих пор погодные приметы цитируют телеканалы, ими пользуются в сельском хозяйстве. Даже этнологи не могут заглянуть в прошлое дальше 17 века. Кто в те незапамятные времена придумывал приметы? Была ли мудрость плодом наблюдений или приходила как откровение свыше? Естественные постоянные наблюдения, передававшиеся из уст в уста, для конкретной местности, как это ни странно, до сих пор работают. В научной обсерватории МГУ на протяжении 40 лет проводят essay writing help. Трижды в день температура замеряется не только в атмосфере, но и у поверхности почвы, и даже на глубине 2 метра. Что получится, если сопоставить научные наблюдения и природные? Исследовано 15 различных широко известных примет, проверена их оправдываемость по данным 40 лет наблюдений. Оказалось, что в среднем оправдываемость – 38%. Это оглушительный провал. По мнению учёных, действенны только краткосрочные прогнозы примет, предсказывающие ближайшее будущее.
Некоторые приметы легко объясняются. Звук колокола по реке слышится далеко – к морозу. Действительно, это волновод в инверсии, что является условием морозной погоды.
Самые современные метеорологические достижения способны обеспечить точный прогноз максимум на 2 недели. Между тем, в русском фольклоре есть предсказания даже на год вперёд. После тщательного анализа народных примет метеорологи смогли получить подтверждение только для самых знаменитых поговорок по поводу рождественских, крещенских и никольских морозов. Это удивительно, но действительно, в многолетнем ходе изменения температуры по станциям в Москве, есть некоторые минимумы локальные, которые неплохо соответствуют рождественским морозам, крещенским поменьше и афанасьевским. Но эти данные являются статистически недостоверными.
Наука способна разрушать мифы, но не способна создавать новые. Поэтому, желая знать погоду дольше, чем на 2 недели вперёд, люди продолжают искать поддержки в древних знаниях. Выбирая, что завтра одеть, лучше загляните на метеосайты, а планируя отпуск или покупая семена для весенних посадок, обращайтесь к приметам – единственному источнику информации о будущей погоде.
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